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Why most punters back only favorites?

  September 15 , 2010
   

Race goers tend to back only favorites. The reasoning is that these horses have more chances of winning simply because they have been backed by the majority. Backing a favourite is a comforting factor for a punter. This is why a punter tends to go with favourites even when logic suggests that he may be making a wrong decision. A day`s result is often analyzed by most writers as to how many favorites won and if most races have been won by them, then they go with the belief that the majority has won. If the majority of races are won by lesser fancied runners, then such violent expressions as ``blood bath``, ``severe drubbing``, etc are used. Can we reduce betting so simplistically?

The favourite syndrome affects everyone including those who seem logical and believe in rationalizing everything they do. Even the professionals are not free from this trait of feeling that a favourite has a better chance of winning. I have quite often seen trainers being very confident about their horse much before race time but when that horse is less supported in the ring, they develop cold feet. Rarely can they tip a horse with conviction if it is running at long odds.

One of the trainers in Bangalore had tipped his horse as a certainty two days before the race was to run. To his surprise, despite being so open about his confidence, the horse opened at longer odds and remained so till a few hours before race time. Just as his confidence was taking a beating, the horse came in for sustained support, restoring his trust in the ability of his horse! If the said horse had run at a higher price, it is quite possible that he may have tipped his horse as a chance bet at race time instead of the emphatic way with which he went about telling his supporters to back the horse after the price on the horse shortened.

The reason why this influences the mindset of a punter or a racing professional is because he tends to find additional reason for justification to support his belief even at the cost of his logical thinking which is born out by being an insider to the state of preparedness of a horse to win. The betting pattern of the majority is more often than not dominated by lack of insight and rational calculation. But a punter opts for an easy way out because this will reduce his dissonance and make him feel better. The anxiety that comes with the possibility of having made a bad decision can lead to rationalization even if the said horse that he has backed has lost. Cognitive Dissonance is defined as an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. To reduce this dissonance, a punter tends to justify his decision and if it does not work the way he expects, he resorts to blaming and denying. Quite often in horse racing, result defies expectation and in a state of dissonance, people rarely feel that they have made a mistake and they tend to justify their bias by irrational and destructive behavior. To put it cynically, a punter keeps making mistakes again and again but blames his mistake on someone else!

More than a decade ago, a leading trainer had two horses running in the Derby. The trainer was confident about the chances of the horse which was a long shot though he did not have the courage of conviction to say it openly. Of the two horses, one of them was an overwhelming favourite, having lost the Summer Derby by a whisker. In the event, the long priced horse won the race thrashing the favourite. In the post race Press Conference, the trainer said that he was pretty confident about the winner as he thought that the horse would stay better over a mile and half trip. When one of the reporters told him that by not revealing his mind before the race, he may have misled people. This lead to heated argument and that was the last post Derby Press Conference that has been held at Bangalore. Had the winner started as a joint favourite, then the trainer may have well said that the race was a toss up between the two but because one of the horses was an overwhelming favourite, he too believed like the majority and said that that the favourite was good till the race was over. Only a minority of race goers shun favourites.

These days, we have experts advising punters on why they should avoid favorites and how to lay the horse (In other words, instead of backing the favourite, take the bet on the favourite themselves). These experts extol punters not to be misled by hype, which is based on rumor and have opened consultancy services to guide them how to deviate from the trap that the majority fall into.

The mindset of a punter is always influenced by the fact of a horse being a favourite no matter how many times he is proved wrong. This perception can never change whatever theories that may be advocated against backing favorites. A big punter always swears by the favourite even if time and again he has lost a fortune. For the record, about 30 per cent of horses win as favorites world wide and anything higher than this is considered as a big deviation from the norm. Success visits favourites often but never sits with them permanently!

 
 
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Total Comments : 15
Posted by Cruise on ( September 15 , 2010 )
G-m`ing Mr Sharan,
As usual spot on in assessing the MINDSET of Punters who follow the FAVOURITE[s] blindly.
And your last line was the perfect icing on the cake.
regards,
CRUISE_B`lore.
 
Posted by Vizak on ( September 16 , 2010 )
Good one Sharan, Keep the good work going your effort in educating the common punter (race goer) is encouraging.

Once again Well Done

 
Posted by James Bond on ( September 15 , 2010 )
Mr. Apps,
Can’t agree to you mo !!!
If a punter’s fancied horse is a favorite o in the bettin line, he is confident in backing the horse, on the other hand if it’s outta bettin line, one is skeptical in backing.
One sentence I liked the most in the above article is : “Punters keep making mistakes again n again but blame his mistake on someone else”

You back favorites o non-favorites doesn’t matter, what matters the most is, are u making money !!!

Good One Apps !!!
 
Posted by sadasivam on ( September 17 , 2010 )
The favourite hunters may maintain their distance from the favourites, if someone can throw light on who is making them favourite, and the observation of mr. shapoors friend is quite revealing. is it not?
 
Posted by sarat.sharma on ( September 17 , 2010 )
A very well written article on the subject of favorites. Maybe you could have also thrown light on the question which a couple of persons have asked as to who declare a particular horse as a favorite. As per my knowledge of the sport is concerned, the bookies have a very big part in nominating the favored horses. Most bookies have the back up of top class handicapping, either by themselves or by having the services rendered to them. Once the race card is made public , it is the handicappers who short list the leading contenders for a particular race and so on. Fashionable and hyped horses are often running and these tend to invite betting even on nights prior to the racing day. The bookies open odds based on their inputs and handicapping and once bet upon the odds are fine tuned. I have often seen owners and knowledgable/ connected persons taking bets early in the morning when odds offered are much higher.The confidence of the bookies gets furthur strengthened when the right people like the owner, trainer or the connections of the rider bet money well in advance.
The dilemma for these persons is always when a horse with a decent chance does not attract advance betting but then suddenly there is a huge wager by the connected persons all across the country in a swift manner and a coup or kill is effected at higher odds.
 
Posted by Nagesh on ( September 15 , 2010 )
Dear Mr Sharan Kumar

In racing one always becomes wiser only after the races. I know recently in the last Bangalore season a horse named Yamaguchi started off as a favourite and the odds drifted out badly to 10 to 1 and the horse lost. The trainer said as you have written that the horse was a donkey and it was the punters who made it a favourite. Still the trainer had the audacity to run it in higher class once where it finished nowhere. But running in the lower class after this run it demolished the opposition with scant respect. Can a horse improve so drastically and do you think the trainer was speaking the gospel truth. You can check your records in the profile section to be sure. Now do you think that the horse became a favourite for no apparent reason? As a matter of fact more than 75% of the times favourites become favourites because they have the merit. But it is the price that is carried by the favourites and the connections that matter. Logic goes for a toss with these connections. Though the horses have the merit it is the bookmakers and other vested interests who make harakiri. Whenever it rains even a little I have seen Ramaswamy`s horses never run and this defies the logic that they have no merit. They ran like champions in the very next run. Favourites are favourites and people go behind them for obvious reasons and if they lose they are hurt and blame on the connections which is right in most of the cases. Anyway a good article which helps people to think and not go behind favourites not becacuse they dont have merit but because they have not been backed by the connections.

Cheers!!

Nagesh
 
Posted by Suresh H on ( September 15 , 2010 )
Good one sir

Their is a saying

DON`T LOOK AT THE ODDS RUNNING

lOOK AT THE HORSE RUNNING.

Does not mean the favt should win all the time if that happens their will be no book maker or tote any were in the world, nobody like to loose every time you know???????
 
Posted by Admin on ( September 16 , 2010 )
The jockeys may not be the best judges though it is quite possible that they may reserve the best information to themselves. They don`t have qualms about tipping horses which have no ghost of a chance. Some jockeys may be adept at tipping a horse but they may not be forthcoming because of the gag on them or because the professionals in India are never honest in giving their views. You can see pre-Derby interviews of professionals which are carried in media as an example about everyone talking about his own horse having a chance to win instead of giving honest opinion of the merit of the horse competing in a race. This is sometimes forbidden by the connections. The same applies for trainers. From my experience of observing professionals from close quarters for over a decade, I can tell you that most trainers are not capable of nominating their horses with conviction unless the horse has been brought down several classes. Most professionals are bad tipsters and they too go with the general trend. If their horse is forcefully backed because of someone else`s intelligence, more often than not, they accept the same and keep tipping their horses, their strength enforced by market trend. Rashid Byramji once told me that his friends told him that he was world`s worst tipster. And he had no hesitation in modestly saying that he was a poor tipster. Some of them do know their job well but where do you get their views? A punter has to really work hard to find winners on his own which is the reason why the easy way they take is to go with the market trend.
 
Posted by Aswin Patel on ( September 18 , 2010 )
A more accurate statastic that could help people is that about 80% of the races are won within the first 4 fav`s world wide ( i.e the 1st four in the betting line ) The rest of the 20% is for the bookmakers. So if one really aplies and knows about racing he/she may not get mauled in the betting ring.They could stand to lose a little less.

P.S I am talking about winning only and not that the 1st four finish in the first four.
I am Enjoying you articles Sharan, more LIVE instances may be helpful / enjoyable. Keep it up , Talk to you soon.
 
Posted by ygn on ( September 15 , 2010 )
A very good eye opener to punters who run behind favourites blindly. As you have rightly pointed out only 30 % of the favourites win throughout the world.

Another factor to note is only 30-32 % of tips given by any tipster will only win. I have not come accross any tipster who has crossed 33 %. If you have any I will be happy to update my statistics.
 
Posted by shapoor on ( September 15 , 2010 )
Couldn`t agree with u more, Sharan Kumar. In fact I have a friend in Pune who backs nothing else but the favourite, and comes back losing more often than not. He blames the bookmakers for misleading him, by opening the wrong horse as the favourite, because as per him the ultimate winner should have opened favourite, he thinks only the fav has the right to win. God help him.
 
Posted by shivshankar reddy on ( September 15 , 2010 )
mr sharanji,
believe or not believe horse racing punters never gain money if they keep on playing all races.as per my experience( over more than 15 yrs ) every race day irrespective of centres minimum three favourites will win. so a wise punter has to write down total favourites and he has to eliminate one by one based on several factors(price,trackwork,previous run ,jocky,observation in the ring) . SO FINALLY he can come to conclude 1 or 2 favourite horses to play on that raceday. One of the famous racing legendary has expressed his opinion about punter ,if he bets only one horse that too fav on any race day(provided above study)he never looses,otherwise he will come to footpath keep on days going.
 
Posted by sad sack on ( September 15 , 2010 )
Please give me a reply Mr Sharan. What makes a horse a favourite, and does the jockey or trainer have the sureness that his favourite will win? (7.55pm)


Admin: A horse can become a favourite because of its track form, previous run or the hype built around it. Quite often horses with inferior credentials become favourites due to several stories that make the round. And also wrong horses can become favourites because the ones with credentials may not be enthusiastically backed by its connections or its latent merit may not be noticed. Bookmakers open odds based on the information they have on hand which may or may not be accurate but punters are generally guided by the odds which is the reason why they give greater value to favourites even in their perception some other horse in the race may have greater chances.
 
Posted by sad sack on ( September 15 , 2010 )
Thank you for the first part and If you could add to the jockey/ trainer part of the `qu`...it would be wonderflul..(10.58pm)
 
Posted by Saeed on ( September 17 , 2010 )
Dear Sharan,
Thanks once again for your article, I expect you to go deep into the subject from all angles to educate punters.

As per my opinion it pays to follow horses with regards to their past performance, trackreport, trackcondition, condition of horse(fitness), whether present distance with given handicap suits him to beat others, & to what extend. This and approach of trainer and owners intentions (to be judged by experience).
Not to go for all races, as far as betting is concern, i.e to select only few races for betting and to bet with confidence and when sure bet good amount. Good luck
 
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