To anyone watching from the outside, the glanders crisis in Indian racing appears baffling. Racing continues normally in Mumbai, Kolkata and Delhi, yet it has been stopped for over two months in Mysore and Bengaluru, and even longer in Hyderabad. The confusion deepened recently when the National Horse Breeders` Society of India (NHBSI) raised a red flag over the way horses are being tested for the disease.

For the uninitiated, glanders is a serious bacterial disease that can spread between horses and, in rare cases, to humans. Because of its severity, the law mandates strict action when a horse tests positive, including euthanasia. That alone explains why the disease provokes anxiety. What has now unsettled breeders and racing authorities alike is not just the disease, but the uncertainty surrounding the tests used to detect it.

The NHBSI, representing breeders across the country, has publicly acknowledged a worrying trend. Horses that appear perfectly healthy, show no symptoms and have had no known contact with infected animals are producing “positive” or “doubtful” test results. Under current rules, even such borderline results can lead to the destruction of the horse.

Alarmed by this, the NHBSI has advised that widespread testing of all horses on stud farms be temporarily paused until discussions are held with the National Research Centre on Equines, the Animal Husbandry Commissioner and international experts. This is a call to examine whether the testing process and the way results are interpreted truly reflect scientific reality.

This matters enormously for racing. Stud farms are where young horses are bred and raised. At this time of year, two-year-olds are expected to move from stud farms to training centres. If stud farms are labelled “affected areas” based on a handful of doubtful samples, that movement will stop. And if movement stops, racing centres that are otherwise free of disease may remain shut indefinitely.

This is the heart of the problem. Racing has not stopped because large numbers of horses are sick. In fact, at the affected centres, the vast majority of horses have tested negative. Racing has stopped because a few positives have triggered blanket restrictions, freezing entire centres rather than isolating specific yards or horses.

Globally, glanders has never been managed by shutting everything down and waiting for absolute certainty. Countries that dealt with it successfully focused on control, not perfection. They isolated infected horses, restricted movement, tested regularly and allowed activity to continue where there was no evidence of spread. They accepted that no system can guarantee zero risk.

India`s difficulty lies in the disease`s incubation period, which is believed to extend up to six months. This means a horse could test negative today and still show a positive result months later. If authorities insist on waiting until every possible risk has passed, racing could remain suspended for half a year or more. That is not just impractical, it is unsustainable.

The NHBSI`s intervention has highlighted another danger. When testing becomes something owners fear more than the disease itself, transparency breaks down. Owners may hesitate to report symptoms or present horses for testing. History shows that glanders spreads most easily under such conditions. Fear, not movement, becomes the real enemy.

So where does this leave racing?

The immediate future depends on whether authorities are willing to shift from a mindset of avoidance to one of management. Stud farms require careful scrutiny, but doubtful results must be confirmed and interpreted cautiously. Movement should be tightly controlled, documented and disinfected, not stopped altogether.

There is scientific evidence that glanders tests can produce false or doubtful positives. Most routine tests do not detect the live bacterium (Burkholderia mallei), but antibodies produced by the horse`s immune system. These antibodies can sometimes cross-react with related bacteria or persist without active infection, leading to borderline or misleading results. This is why test reports include a “doubtful” category. International veterinary guidelines recognise this limitation and recommend repeat and confirmatory testing before taking irreversible action. False positives are especially more likely in populations where the actual incidence of glanders is low.

Can racing resume in the next three months at centres that have already been shut for over two months? The honest answer is yes, but only if policy changes. If authorities continue waiting for perfect certainty, the shutdown will drag on. If they accept that controlled risk is unavoidable and put robust systems in place, racing can return under strict supervision.

This is not just a veterinary challenge. It is a test of governance and common sense. Glanders demands seriousness, but it also demands clarity. Without it, the sport risks drifting into a shutdown far longer and more damaging than the disease itself.