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AI Derby? Coolmore Already Running the Algorithm

By: Rolf Johnson   June 1 , 2026
   

Artificial Intelligence threatens to replace everything from clerks to composers, but racing may already have found its own ruthless machine. It wears navy silks, answers to Aidan O`Brien and keeps spitting out Classic winners with conveyor-belt precision. The French Derby became another Ballydoyle data dump: first, second and third for Coolmore. At this rate punters may soon skip studying form altogether and simply ask a chatbot one question: “Which O`Brien horse is Ryan Moore ignoring today?”

How long before the AI Derby? Artificial Intelligence is taking over the world – why won`t it decide racing results? Save a lot of expense and heartache and the results would probably be the same – Aidan O`Brien first, the rest nowhere. The French Derby, the Prix du Jockey Club produced just such a result – O`Brien runners first, second and third.

Twelve months ago O`Brien was just a length away from winning every British, French and Irish Middle-distance Classic – all the Derbies and Oaks, all Group Ones, all forecast. And nobody was betting against him monopolizing this year, as he has done for the last two decades in which he has won a record ten Derbies at Epsom.

The French have a word for it – three in fact – embarrass de richesse – an excess of riches. Even when one of Coolmore`s outsiders comes up trumps – and it is not beyond the imagination that we will have a Derby result on June 6th, like those of 2017 Wings of Eagles, Anthony Van Dyke (2019), Serpentine (2020) and Lambourn (2025) – the band of men, Magnier, Smith and Tabor, who matter at Coolmore, who like to be addressed as the ‘lads` though of a certain age, are in no way embarrassed or inconvenienced.

Aidan O`Brien is a mere 56.

So Coolmore can have the favourite for the French Derby and the one at Epsom – which used to be “theDerby” and the only people who feel embarrassed (financially) or indeed miffed are those who made Constitution River ante-post favourite for Epsom, above and beyond stablemate Benvenuto Cellini (Frankel-Newspaperofrecord. Lope de Vega).

Instead Constitution River (Wootton Bassett-Chuppy, Mukhadram), who gave most people the wow factor for his Chester Derby trial victory, was redirected to Chantilly (along with two stablemates) for the French Derby. There were the usual caveats and doomongers about his bad draw, high, stall 15 at Chantilly. The same applies at Epsom. 2, 11 and 16 are reckoned ‘coffin draws` with no winner from them since stalls were introduced in 1967. On the other hand, next door to 11 stall at Epsom, 10, has produced 12 winners in that time including last year`s Lambourn.

One could never have imagined the French Derby, the Prix du Jockey Club inaugurated 1836, competing with the Epsom Derby first run in 1780, though the former precedes the latter each year by a week in July. Constitution River was bred in France at Haras du Cadran, purchased for €400,000 at the Arqana sales in Deauville and ridden by stable number one Ryan Moore who had chosen the wrong one in two fillies` Guineas this season. This time he got it right – as he did tactics not hurrying his mount over to the bulk of the field from their high draw.

O`Brien had two other runners in the sixteen-strong field: Hawk Mountain (Wootton Bassett-Hydrangea by Elusive Quality) was the mount of many-time French champion jockey Christophe Soumillon, and he articulated as well as anyone could O`Brien`s genius. Soumillon could have been accused of deserting his country to ride for O`Brien and the Irish juggernaut but as he said, “I am coming past halfway in my career and to ride for such a great trainer is irresistible. It`s like riding a morning gallop at Ballydoyle, He is a great artist and everything is planned to obtain the exact result.”

Maiden winner Montreal (Sea The Stars-Muwakaba by Galileo), partnered by Coolmore`s number two jockey Wayne Lordan, was included as ‘rabbit` to lead the pace. And yet Montreal finished no more than a couple of lengths behind. Does his proximity devalue the form? Aidan O`Brien`s switch of Constitution River to Chantilly just as he had been promoted to Epsom favourite suggests the 2100 metres of the French Derby has assumed at least as important a standing for breeding plans as the 2400 metres of the Derby. Traditionalists will be turning in their graves – certainly the greatest breeding expert of all, Federico Tesio, who said that the Derby winning post was the most important piece of wood in the world.

O`Brien intimated as much. “I think the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club is a race that has worked out very well for breeders, and for horses who take part in it. To win over 2,100 metres at Chantilly you need a horse with a lot of speed. We try to place horses according to their aptitude, and this Chantilly 2,100 metres gives us an additional option.”

The first three home dominated the race from before the turn for home, passing the magnificent chateau that overlooks the course. Ryan Moore, the winning jockey said: “I simply rode the race as it developed. What I knew was that I was riding a very good horse. He makes life easy for you—he does everything effortlessly. He has plenty of speed, he stays well and he has an excellent temperament. When a horse is that straightforward, the draw becomes less important than it otherwise might have been.

“I think Constitution River could come back to a mile, and I also think he`ll stay a mile and a half, despite all the speed he possesses.”

This is not the first time Aidan O`Brien has filled the first three places in a major French race at Chantilly. In 2016, when the Qatar Prix de l`Arc de Triomphe was temporarily relocated from Longchamp to Chantilly due to redevelopment work, he saddled Found, Highland Reel and Order of St George to complete the podium. The victory also gave Coolmore stallion Wootton Bassett his second Qatar Prix du Jockey Club winner, following Camille Pissarro success last year.

This was O`Brien`s third French Derby victory. He is the man to beat – except when he beats himself. When he won this year`s One Thousand Guineas at Newmarket and then the equivalent mile fillies Classic in Ireland it was his ‘second string` which triumphed on both occasions. Precise and Ryan Moore had been undisputed favourite for the One Thousand Guineas at Newmarket but as they say ‘bombed out` behind her stablemate True Love. On the Curragh it was all change for Coolmore`s number one Moore. Yet arguably the best jockey in the world made the wrong choice again swapping to True Love from Precise: once more stable first reserve Lordan was handed the winner. Precise, overturning True Love and the form by just over five lengths.

O`Brien`s Precise (Starspangledbanner-Way to My Heart) has four stable companions to overcome among the 12-runner Epsom Oaks on Friday. She isn`t even favourite – that`s been stablemate Amelia Earhart (Camelot-Venus de Milo, Duke of Marmalade) since her Cheshire Oaks success. Juddmonte poke into the market among the Coolmores with Legacy Link, out of Frankel`s sister Chisama.

There is an Indian interest too in Shapoor Mistry`s Thundering On (Frankel-Thundering Nights, Night of Thunder) heroine of the Salsabil Stakes (Gr2) but in this numbers game another top team, that of Ralph Beckett has three entries though none with the obvious claims of that trainer`s Oaks winners Look Here (2008) and Talent (2013).

Since that year`s Oaks renewal Coolmore have won the fillies` middle distance Classic seven times – a stranglehold turning racing into a game of musical chairs - except that when the music stops Coolmore always grab the best seats. We`re on the edge of ours waiting for the final Derby declarations not forgetting Aidan O`Brien`s son Joseph`s James J Braddock winner of the Leopardstown Derby Trial.

Wayne Lordan was given steering responsibility in last year`s Derby on the lesser-fancied Lambourn with Ryan Moore, as ever, on the favourite, the eventual well-beaten Delacroix. A setback and yet Coolmore seem to have the best of all worlds whatever the result. As O`Brien says: “The only thing for survival is results. It`s a results business we`re in.” And the results continue to go his way.

 
 
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